09
Jan 13

Small Farmers, NGOs, and a Walmart World

Despite more than a decade of NGO and government activities promoting developing world farmer participation in high-value agricultural markets, evidence regarding the household welfare effects of such initiatives is limited. This article analyzes the geographic placement of supermarket supply chains in Nicaragua between 2000 and 2008 and uses a difference-in-differences specification on measures of supplier and nonsupplier assets to estimate the welfare effects of small farmer participation. Though results indicate that selling to supermarkets increases household productive asset holdings, they also suggest that only farmers with advantageous endowments of geography and water are likely to participate.

The abstract of a new article by my friend, coauthor, and grad school colleague Hope Michelson in the American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsHere is recent ungated version the paper. Continue reading →


05
Dec 12

What Foods Will Give You Cancer?

The short answer is: Most of them.

That’s the conclusion from a meta-analysis by Jonathan Schoenfeld and John Ioannidis (yes, that John Ioannidis) in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.

From James Choi’s blog: Continue reading →


03
Dec 12

Managing Basis Risk with Index Insurance in West Africa

Exposure to risk is one of life’s few certitudes. For people who live in developing countries, where underdevelopment almost always extends to financial markets, and where financial instruments to hedge against risk are fewer and further between than in industrialized countries, risk is even more prevalent. The rise of microfinance over the last 20 years has brought about the development of financial instruments designed to protect the poor against some of the risk they face. We first develop an innovative index insurance contract for West African cotton producers, whose harvests are highly variable. The main feature of this contract is that relative to commonly used index insurance contracts, it considerably reduces the basis risk faced by West African cotton producers. We then describe an ongoing evaluation of the impacts of the double-trigger insurance contract in Mali and Burkina Faso. Continue reading →


12
Nov 12

#SWEDOW on Steroids

The One Laptop Per Child organization is trying something new in two remote Ethiopian villages — simply dropping off tablet computers with pre-loaded programs and seeing what happens.

The goal: to see if illiterate kids with no previous exposure to written words can learn how to read all by themselves, by experimenting with the tablet and its preloaded alphabet-training games, e-books, movies, cartoons, paintings, and other programs. Continue reading →


02
Nov 12

Fingerprints

Not the Katy Perry song, but actual fingerprints, which can be used to improve credit markets by lowering default rates.

A new article by Giné et al. in the American Economic Review:

We implemented a randomized field experiment in Malawi examining borrower responses to being fingerprinted when applying for loans. This intervention improved the lender’s ability to implement dynamic repayment incentives, allowing it to withhold future loans from past defaulters while rewarding good borrowers with better loan terms. As predicted by a simple model, fingerprinting led to substantially higher repayment rates for borrowers with the highest ex ante default risk, but had no effect for the rest of the borrowers. We provide unique evidence that this improvement in repayment rates is accompanied by behaviors consistent with less adverse selection and lower moral hazard.

In other words, fingerprinting does a ton of good to the credit market. Because they fear getting denied loans in the future, borrowers who have been fingerprinted repay at a higher rate, and fingerprinting also both (i) reduces the proportion of bad borrowers and (ii) the likelihood that borrowers will invest borrowed funds in risky projects.

The fact that fingerprinting borrowers reduces default rates might seem obvious, but note that it had never been shown convincingly before that improvements in how lenders identify borrowers led to improvements in credit markets.

Moreover, those improvements are important for policy because they can reduce the amount of credit rationing. As Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) have shown, because of adverse selection and moral hazard, lenders often have to maintain artificially low interest rates. This causes credit to be rationed in many economies, which means that many people are denied loans.