{"id":9019,"date":"2013-06-07T05:00:43","date_gmt":"2013-06-07T09:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/?p=9019"},"modified":"2013-06-06T17:31:57","modified_gmt":"2013-06-06T21:31:57","slug":"comment-of-the-week-speculation-and-commodity-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/9019","title":{"rendered":"Comment of the Week: Speculation and Commodity Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gabriel, who knows <a title=\"Gabriel J. Power - Articles\" href=\"http:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/e\/ppo59.html#articles\" target=\"_blank\">a thing or two about commodity prices<\/a>, comments on yesterday&#8217;s <a title=\"Speculation and Commodity Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/2013\/06\/speculation-and-commodity-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\">post<\/a> in which I talked about how Aulerich et al. find no evidence that speculation caused the food crisis:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I would just add:<br \/>\n(1) Granger-causality is not causality as is typically understood, and is best interpreted as &#8220;predictability.&#8221; Thus, if knowledge of speculative positions does not improve our price forecasts, it is reasonable to conclude that speculation does not affect prices.<br \/>\n(2) Speculators can profit either by taking long (buy) or short (sell) positions, so there is no reason to believe they would have an interest in strictly rising prices.<br \/>\n(3) Prices have gone up for some commodities for which there are no financial instruments (i.e. speculation); and prices have not gone up for some commodities for which there are financial instruments.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gabriel, who knows a thing or two about commodity prices, comments on yesterday&#8217;s post in which I talked about how Aulerich et al. find no&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/9019\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Comment of the Week: Speculation and Commodity Prices<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gPg8-2lt","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9019"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9019\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9023,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9019\/revisions\/9023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcfbellemare.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}