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Category: Economics

Published February 7, 2012

Causal Identification and Policy Relevance Go Hand in Hand

On what to avoid when submitting an article for publication in development economics (and applied micro in general, I would add):

Q: Any pet peeves with submissions or with referees that would be good for people to avoid?

A: Unfortunately yes. Our main two criteria in selecting papers for publication are rigorous identification and policy relevance. The two go together as we cannot have credible policy recommendations without strong causal inference. Too many of the submitted papers offer simple “determinants” that are partial correlates with no causal value, and yet are the basis for bold policy recommendations, sometimes of first order of importance for development practice. This includes a large number of cross-country panel regressions with only mechanical, and hence not credible, identification, and yet eventually huge claims of policy implications. Regarding policy relevance, papers too often address issues of nth order of importance for development, clearly not something that will change outcomes and interest readers.

Some wise words from World Bank Economic Review editors Alain de Janvry and Élisabeth Sadoulet in an interview with David McKenzie and Berk Özler of the Development Impact blog which, if you do academic research in development policy, is a must. The emphasis is mine, as I feel the knowledge that rigorous identification is a necessary condition for policy relevance is not widespread enough.

 

Published February 3, 2012

IAEC Economics Postdoctoral Associate Position at Cornell

I have received this earlier this week, in case anyone is interested in applying. This should be a good occasion to get a few papers published and to acquire solid teaching experience:

Postdoctoral researchers are invited to apply for participation in the economics initiative at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY. Applications will be accepted for one or two-year positions, beginning approximately August 15, 2012.

In addition to research activities and interacting with economics faculty and students across the university, the position will include teaching one course. Postdoctoral associates will have access to the full range of university resources and receive an annual stipend and health benefits.  Applicants must have a Ph.D. by August 15, 2012; scholars who have completed their PhDs within the past two years will be considered.

Screening of applications will begin March 15, 2012. Applicants should submit a curriculum vita, a brief statement of research interests, a writing sample, and three reference letters by e-mail to mw46@cornell.edu. Cornell is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer; minorities and women are encouraged to apply.

Sponsored by the Institute for the Advancement of Economics at Cornell.

(HT: Chris Barrett.)

Published February 2, 2012

US Food Aid Does Have an Impact in Developing Countries, Just Not the One You Think It Has (Updated)

A new working paper by Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian:

This paper examines the effect of US food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in US wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a country’s tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in US food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.

This is bound to make waves among food policy scholars and in Washington, DC, where the Farm Bill, part of which sets guidelines for the provision of food aid, is due to be renewed this year.

I have not yet had a chance to read the paper (I’m teaching two classes this semester, so most of my reading time goes to those; I’ve been on the same “pleasure”-reading book since before Christmas), so please take the following with a grain of salt since it’s off the top of my head, but I wonder whether it might have made for cleaner identification to use weather shocks (specifically, extreme weather events and natural disasters) as a source of exogenous variation instead of fluctuations in US wheat production.

In other words, it could perhaps be the case that US wheat production affects conflict through means other than US food aid, so using unpredictable shocks to the supply of US food aid might make for more solid identification. But as I said, I have not yet had a chance to read the paper, and Nunn and Qian are both careful empiricists, so they probably address my concern somewhere in the paper.

UPDATE: Jon Prettyman, a Masters of Public Policy student advisee of mine, just emailed with this: “I saw the Nunn and Qian paper on several blogs today and I’m reading through it now, primarily because it sounds an awful lot like my thesis, and came across the answer to the question from your post.  They did use weather in an earlier draft of the paper, but found that wheat production yields similar estimates and is easier to interpret.”