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Statistical Inference and Ambiguity Aversion: Making Sense of the GMO Debates

It seems as though every time someone posts something on GMOs, two kinds of people come out to comment: those who are for GMOs, and those who are against. Increasingly, it seems to me that both sides are talking past one another, and that little to no progress is being made because the inflamed rhetoric on both sides has so far failed to convince anyone that the other side might be onto something.

With this post, I’d like to make sense of the current debate surrounding GMOs. I don’t want to discuss intellectual property and corporate behavior here, as those are topics best left for future posts. Likewise for my belief that between consuming GMOs on the one hand and being malnourished, undernourished, or dying of hunger on the other hand, I’ll take consuming GMOs.

I’d just like to present what I see as good arguments on each side, in order to introduce a bit of reason in the whole debate. There are smart, rational people on both sides of the GMO divide. It’s just sometimes difficult to hear their voices amid the shrill debates in which the attention is focused on who screams the loudest.

Impact Evaluation and the “Not in My Backyard” Syndrome: Comments and Discussion

My post last Monday on how everyone is talking about impact evaluation but no one seems to want to be evaluated — or NIMBY, for “not in my backyard” — has generated a good bit of discussion, which I think is great. Here is a sample.

From the comments, Ben writes:

I’m sympathetic to the NGO guy. Put yourself in their shoes:
1. The evaluator is going to tell you whether you program is a success or failure using a metholodgy you don’t understand in a process completely out of your control
2. The methodology is billed as “scientific” and this is intriguing, many people put great stock in this methodology. However, it does have some smart critics who seem to make good points.
3. You’re aware that evaluations using this methodology sometimes find no impact, not because the project has failed but because of data problems, timing, etc. You’re not sure how you would try to explain this if it happened in your case.

Talks in London and Frankfurt Next Week

I will be giving two talks in Europe next week. In both cases, I will be presenting my work on female genital cutting, which has now been expanded to cover both Senegal and the Gambia.

The first talk will be on Wednesday, November 13, and is organized by the London International Development Centre. You can find the details here. The second talk will be on Thursday, November 14 at Goethe Universität in Frankfurt. You can find the details here. If you do make it to either one of those talks, please come say hi and introduce yourself.