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Month: January 2011

Conditional Cash Transfers in Brazil

The New York Times has an article by Tina Rosenberg on the Bolsa Familia program in Brazil, which is modeled after the Oportunidades program in Mexico.

Both programs are conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, which means that individuals or households receive a cash transfer if they statisfy fulfill requirements. In the case of Oportunidades, Rosenberg writes that “families must keep their children in school and go for regular medical checkups, and mom must attend workshops on subjects like nutrition or disease prevention.”

The empirical evidence on CCT programs is pretty solid. But as I tell the students in my development seminar, the problem with CCT programs is that they are very expensive: Duflo (2010) notes that it costs $1,000 to keep a child in school one more year under Oportunidades, whereas it costs $3.50 to do so under a deworming program.

During the first few weeks of the fall semester, I spend a lot of time teaching the students in my development seminar about the various ways in which we can assess the effectiveness of policy interventions.

To convince the most resilient of them — those who may be tempted to think that instrumental variables, randomized controlled trials, identification, etc. are eggheaded concerns — I tell them that knowing what works is useful because it allows policy makers — and thus presumably — taxpayers to get the best bang for the buck.

In the case of Bolsa Familia, I am for poverty reduction via policies that work, but I am also for poverty reduction via cost-minimizing (i.e., wealth-maximizing) policies that work. I am not familiar enough with the Brazilian evidence so as to be sure that Bolsa Familia is such a policy.

(HT: @poverty_action)

The Power and Pitfalls of Experiments in Development Economics

Chris Barrett and Michael Carter have an interesting new paper in the latest issue of Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, which is to the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association what the Journal of Economic Perspectives is to the American Economics Association.

Here is the abstract:

“Impact evaluation based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) offers a powerful tool that has fundamentally reshaped development economics by offering novel solutions to long-standing problems of weak causal identification. Nonetheless, RCTs suffer important and underappreciated pitfalls, some of which are intrinsic to the method when applied to economic problems, others that are the result of methodological boosterism. Among the pitfalls are ethical dilemmas, uncontrollable treatments that result in a ‘faux exogeneity,’ distortion of the research agenda, and a tendency to estimate interventions’ abstract efficacy rather than their effectiveness in practice. We illustrate these points through the literature on smallholder capital access and productivity growth. Ultimately, we argue for a methodological pluralism that recognizes all identification strategies’ limitations.”

The paper offers interesting insights which I try to keep in mind as my coauthors and I are designing our randomized evaluation of an index insurance scheme for groups of cotton producers in Mali.

Although the paper focuses on development economics in the title, its conclusions can be applied to several fields of interest in the social sciences. Ultimately, I think we will converge toward an empirical approach in which hypothesis will be tested using several methods (e.g., randomized control trial; instrumental variables; regression discontinuity design, etc.) within the same research project.

Links for January 3, 2011

  1. How to write the next Big Economic Treatise: Publish at the right time, and hope future data agrees with your main hypothesis.
  2. CBS column on the decline effect. Hint: Publication bias and reversion to the mean do not mix well.
  3. How to get a decent classical music education for $100.
  4. It’s posts like these that make me read Tynan’s. That and his travel tips.
  5. Why eating grass-fed animals is preferable to eating grain-fed animals.
  6. Pot, meet kettle.
  7. I can’t wait for this book to be available in the US.