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Category: Policy

Published November 29, 2011

My Work on Food Prices Discussed in Sweden’s Axess Magasin

A study by Marc F. Bellemare (2011) studies the link between food prices and food-related protests and riots. The study uses the amount of news about food riots as a measure of how widespread protests are and relates these to monthly data on food prices. This creates a relatively short time periods (months rather than years), which increases the accuracy of the relationship. Indeed, if one studies the relationship betweenthe protests in the Middle East that began in January and February with annual data, one would have missed the fact that that they were preceded by very large price increases starting in the fall of 2010. To identify a causal relationship, the study uses natural disasters to explain variation in food prices. Interestingly, the results of this study show that rising food prices lead to increased risk of protests, but that the effect is reverse for food price volatility.

This is from an article in in Sweden’s Axess Magasin by Jesper Roine, of the Stockholm School of Economics.

The original article is in Swedish — the above excerpt is brought to you in part by Google Translate. From the Wiki page for Axess Magasin, I conclude that it’s Sweden’s equivalent of The Atlantic.

Published November 28, 2011

DC Folks: Talk on Food Prices and Food Riots at the CGD on Monday, December 5

I will be giving the Center for Global Development’s Massachusetts Avenue Development Seminar next Monday, December 5, 2011, at 4 pm. In case anyone would like to meet beforehand, I am free in late morning and early afternoon, so please drop me an email.

Here is the announcement for the seminar:

The Center for Global Development presents
a Massachusetts Avenue Development Seminar (MADS) on

Food Prices and Riots:
Estimating How the Level and Volatility of Food Prices Shape Social Unrest in the Developing World, 1990-2011

Featuring
Marc Bellemare
Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Economics
Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University

With Discussant
Ed Carr
Associate Professor
Department of Geography, University of South Carolina
and
American Association for the Advancement of Science Fellow
United States Agency for International Development

Monday, December 5, 2011
4:00pm–5:30pm

at

Center for Global Development
1800 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Third Floor, Washington, DC
*Please bring photo identification*

Paper Abstract:  Can food prices cause political unrest? Throughout history, riots have frequently broken out, ostensibly as a consequence of high food prices. This paper studies the impact of food prices on political unrest using monthly data at the international level. Results indicate that in the period 1990-2011, food price increases appear to have led to increases in political unrest, whereas food price volatility has been associated with decreased political unrest.

Published November 22, 2011

The Cost of Complex Land Titles and Ellickson’s Must-Read Book for Development Folks

Chinese customs and law have traditionally prevented a land seller from conveying outright title to a buyer. The ancient custom of dian, which persisted until the 1949 revolution, gave a land seller and his lineage an immutable option to buy back sold land at the original sale price. This little-analyzed custom discouraged soil conservation and land improvements, and, especially after 1600, contributed to China’s inability to keep pace with England. After calamitous experiences with land collectivization between 1951 and 1981, China’s Communist government began to confer private land-use rights. But, instead of making outright sales, it chose to award contractual rights only for a fixed-term, for example, 50 years in the case of an industrial parcel. For the same reasons dian did, this policy threatens to impair China’s prospects of economic development.

This is the abstract of Robert C. Ellickson’s latest paper. Land rights have been very much on my mind lately, as I am revising a paper studying their effect on rice productivity in Madagascar.

If you have an interest in development and are not familiar with Ellickson’s work, you are seriously missing out.

Ellickson is Walter E. Meyer Professor of Property and Urban Law at the Yale Law School. The first half of his book Order Without Law — which ranks among my the top five social science books — develops a theory of social norms, the essence of which is that social norms emerge and evolve in a way that maximizes the welfare of the community. This is the informal-sector equivalent to Posner’s hypothesis that the common law evolves in a way that is wealth-maximizing.

The second half of Order Without Law illustrates that theory by presenting a case study of the many social norms observed by the cattle ranchers of Shasta County, CA.

If you think you might be interested in reading Ellickson’s book but aren’t sure about purchasing the book and would like a teaser, read Ellickson’s 1989 Journal of Legal Studies article titled “A Hypothesis of Wealth-Maximizing Norms: Evidence from the Whaling Industry.” That article presents Ellickson’s theory of social norms and applies it to the norms that emerged to regiment New England’s whaling industry in the 18th and 19th centuries.